Columbia's new release will open alongside Overture's horror remake "Let Me In" and Paramount Vantage's creeper "Case 39." There's not much play in the world of holdovers, though Fox's "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps," which topped the box office last weekend, is still holding some of the Flixster users' attention.
(Click for larger image ?> )
New entries on the grid this week include Warner Bros.' "Life As We Know It," Disney's "Secretariat," Universal's "My Soul to Take" and Focus Features' "It's Kind of a Funny Story." A week out from release, these last two have the strongest interest.
Indie audiences can check out the Magnolia releases "Barry Munday" and "Freakonomics," also opening in theaters Friday.
Here?s Carl DiOrio's box office preview, the Bullseye from Sept. 24 and my Monday follow-up for added context.
Comments and observations after the jump:
Well, David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin's little Facebook movie was already hovering near the center of the Bullseye, but in the last week -- probably pushed along by the stampede of critical raves and subject Mark Zuckerberg's donation of $100 million to the Newark school system -- activity has completely blown out, up 244%. "The Social Network" is shaping up to be a four-quadrant friend machine. Want-to-See numbers hold a strong, if not killer, average, with males' interest going up and females' declining a tad. Overall, the film is skewing a bit young and male, unsurprisingly given the content. Still, I see this thing hitting huge opening weekend, in the $32-$35 million range, which would nearly recoup production costs out of the gate.
Activity around Matt Reeves' "Let the Right One In" remake, "Let Me In," has bloomed 116%, but commitment has sagged somewhat in the last week, mostly among the over-25 demos. Its bubble sits right on the border on the male side of the grid, though females are definitely interested, too. To me, it looks remarkably like the situation for "The Last Exorcism" heading into its opening a month ago. That one scored a $20.4m gross, though with less competition. So let's put "Let Me In" at $14-$16M since momentum seems to be fading.
The long-delayed "Case 39" has gained some activity this week, while it's managed to shoot further out into the female side of the Bullseye without drawing any more interest. WTS levels are stillborn, and its activity buzzes at a level 40% under that of "Let Me In." Which would land it at $8-$10m. People do love those Satan movies (see "Exorcism"), but I don't think it's going to make even that much.
From the holdover stable, "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps" has halved, as is the standard in the second week of release, so its follow-up haul should land around $9M. "Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole" went bigger than the Bullseye suggested last week, but there's been almost no mid-week activity (which isn't that surprising, since young kids don't usually get trips to the theater on school nights). It's also slid right a good bit. If word of mouth was good, it could gross another $8m this weekend. "Buried" is still in its small rollout, and it has skewed much younger and male since its opening, though it has been "Certified Fresh," with 83%, on the Tomatometer. "You Again" will slip away quietly.
Most notable in the Flixster data for the Oct. 8 releases is that 1) "It's Kind of a Funny Story," which has had very little public profile, is fielding substantial interest, and 2) Disney's crowd-pleasing "Secretariat" is not. Some of this can be chalked up to the typical Flixster user base, which isn't populated with as many of the older females that are most interested in the horse movie. But still, Disney has some work to do to get people galloping over "Secretariat."
"Story" has crazily intense commitment from those checking it out, with both young males and females posting extremely high WTS numbers (12.88 for dudes 25 and under, 11.91 for females in same demo). But it even has major attention from the over-25s.
What little interest "Secretariat" is pulling, on the other hand, is coming from older women. Male interest isn't completely negligible, but it's pretty small. My criticism is that the billboard and poster campaign doesn't offer a lot to bring in people who don't already know the story. There's no historical come-on, no recognizable face -- just a racing horse.
The Katherine Heigl-Josh Duhamel baby-raising comedy "Life as We Know It" has seen its activity grow by half in the last week, but while females are all over this thing, the men are pointedly keeping it at arms-length (and are likely to keep doing so). It will surely spike even more in the coming week.
The horror film "My Soul to Take" actually landed just left of the bullseye with intense interest. It also, surprisingly, topped the list of titles on Flixster's audience anticipation chart last week.
Powered by WizardRSS | Full Text RSS Feeds
Samantha Mathis Samantha Morton Samantha Mumba Sanaa Lathan Sara Foster
No comments:
Post a Comment